Weekend Box Office 6/16

[Order66]

YTD: 4-1
Units: +6

Play:

The Fast and The Furious: Tokyo Drift over 18 million (-130) <2.6/2>

Only a two-unit play because of a different cast, otherwise it would have been a three-unit play. These movies have a decent following and even though two new people play the lead roles, teens and young adults will still turn out in droves to see the new installment. The Fast and the Furious opened in 2,628 theaters to a phenomenal (at that time) 40.1 million (15,254 per theater average) in its opening weekend. 2 Fast 2 Furious debuted in 3,408 theaters to an even better 50.5 million (14,810 per theater average) in its opening weekend. While this one will not achieve those heights for multiple reasons (new cast, lower theater count (compared to the second installment) less marketing support, etc.), it will still do plenty of business to put it over this line. Good luck all!

 

[JamesTrout]

I had 'Under $24 million' at fairly shitty odds of (-170) over at The Greek. Hopefully we'll both middle!

Thr tracking is either right or it's completely wrong with this one.

 

[joethor]

solid choice order. theater count is close to 3000 and it has name recognition.wont be a blowout win, but you should cover by 3-5 million.

 

[Order66]

Yea it will most likely be close, but this was definitely the best line out there. Nacho Libre was dead on and I felt there was no play either way on that one. Hopefully we have another winner!

 

[llabb]

Great box office posts here, Order. I'm on both Overs:

Fast and Furious 3 Over $18 -130
Nacho Libre Over $26 -110

 

[joethor]

early friday tokyo drift numbers 9.17. congrats order, another winner.

 

[Order66]

Yep, it appears to be another winner and we're not going to have to sweat this one either! :toast: I must say I am really getting a good read right now with the movies being released and am 100% confident in my ability to continue the winning plays. Confidence is a must if you are going to win and right now I feel I can't lose, even though I know at any point things could change for the worse.

Llabb - Barring a major decline on Saturday for Nacho Libre, nice win with both the overs!

JoeThor - Thanks and if you're playing these, hopefully I can continue to bring you and whoever else plays these winners.

James Trout - It will be close on the 24 million, but hopefully we can have a decline on both Saturday and Sunday and get you a winner as well.

 

[joethor]

i am playing these and appreciate your contributions. keep up the excellent work.

 

[Order66]

Weekend estimate for The Fast and The Furious: Toyko Drift is 24.1 million, which makes this the fifth consecutive winner!

 

[JamesTrout]

Anyone know whose numbers The Greek uses? For some reason, I'm seeing the number after a revised estimate to be below $24 million (I thought I lost....but maybe I have!?) over at Box Office Mojo and smack bang on $24 million over at Box Office Guru.

The IMDb says both $24 million on it's summary page and on it's archive page just under $24 million.

Bloody hell....looks like I'll have to sweat it out until Wednesday or something. :smoking:

Well done to the over $18/$20 million backers though as you don't have to put up with my predicament!

 

[llabb]

Trout: As you may have seen, Box Office Mojo has updated the weekend with actuals. Final FF3 figure: $23,973,840. Close, eh?

Order: Keep it up, you're on fire. Thoughts on Click this week? Line will probably be in the low $40's, as it's the only major release, and Sandler movies generally do well.

 

[Order66]

Yea, definitely curious to see the line on Click. However, early predictions are: if line in mid to high 30s most likely going over, low 40s small play either way (depending on theater counts, early buzz, line movements, etc.), mid to high 40s most likely going under. Generally his movies do quite well so this will be a tough one to call. If I don't get a line that stands out one way or the other, it will only be a one-unit play, which I have yet to have one and this may be the week with Superman Returns on the horizon. Line prediction is 42 million, which is only an early estimate.

 

[JamesTrout]

The Greek have graded it as a push. I'm not in the mood to complain as it looked like a loss.

 

[llabb]

Trout: Sounds reasonable. I think some places round of to one decimal point for the millions (nearest hundred thousand), so $23.97384 would indeed be a push it it's rounded to $24.0.

Order: Sounds reasonable. Superman will be weird since it's opening on a Wednesday. Do most books offer a 5-day line, or the 3-day line early, or no line? Because they'd have to be out by Tuesday, which they usually aren't.

 

[Order66]

WSEX will most likely have a 3 day line, however, some books may offer a 5 day line.

 

[llabb]

IIRC, WSEX did not post a line for The Omen, which opened on a Tuesday. Have they posted 3-day lines for past movies that opened in the middle of the week?

 

[Order66]

Yes they have in the past, but it is generally a big movie (Superman Returns for instance). The Omen even though it did well, was not a tentpole picture that would have gotten tons of action. If I'm not mistaken, the last movie they posted a weekend line for that opened during the week was King Kong.

 

[BetIt]

The Click 42 million...what do we think?

 

[joethor]

sportsbook.com has superman returns o/u 89.5 for 6/28-6/30. line seems low to me, given the fact that the kids are out of school and most people who want to see it wont wait to saturday

 

[joethor]

click line seems fairly sharp, tough call.